Dynamic Occupation Value (DOV): The Missing Layer in Modern Football Analytics

Analytics has made remarkable progress in modelling on-ball actions: expected threat, expected possession value, packing indexes, progression value, field tilt.But football remains a continuous invasion game, and continuous games are rarely decided only by the player in possession.

The real structure of a team emerges off the ball — in the geometry, occupation and manipulation of space.

This is where a new layer becomes essential:

Dynamic Occupation Value (DOV)

A spatial metric that quantifies how much value a player creates by moving, stretching, compressing or reorienting the defensive structure — even without touching the ball.

1. Why current models don’t capture this

Event-based models are blind to:

• A winger who widens the back line to open a half-space lane.

• A forward whose decoy run forces the pivot to drop.

• A midfielder who manipulates pressing angles simply by receiving on the half-turn.

• A defender whose slight positional shift closes a high-value passing window.

Tracking data contains these behaviours, but most models still operate at event resolution.

DOV fills this gap by treating movement as an action that changes expected outcomes of future possession sequences.

Classic Voronoi display

2. The core idea: space is not empty — it has tactical value

At each moment, the pitch can be divided into microzones with different levels of potential impact.Classic xThreat already models this to some extent.DOV extends it:

DOV measures how much a player's movement changes the threat landscape for his own team or disrupts the opponent’s.

A player adds positive DOV when he:

• Expands an attacking structure

• Forces defenders to reorient body position

• Opens a passing lane that didn’t previously exist

• Creates numerical or positional superiority by relocation

• Occupies defenders to free teammates between lines

DOV is the first layer that scores occupation decisions, not just on-ball decisions.

3. How it works (intuitive explanation)

DOV relies on four components:

1. Spatial Influence

A continuous model of how far the player's presence affects defensive behaviour (similar to pitch control).

2. Defensive Deformation

A measure of how the opponent’s shape bends, widens, collapses or rotates in response.

3. Opportunity Formation

The net increase in viable:

• passing lanes

• receiving pockets

• high-value zones that become accessible

  
  

4. Outcome Expectation Shift

The change in expected threat or possession value before the ball arrives.

DOV = (Change in Attacking Opportunity) – (Cost of Relocation).

It’s a dynamic metric: computed dozens of times per minute.

4. What DOV reveals that other metrics hide

A. “Silent creators” finally surface

Example: a forward who rarely touches the ball but constantly generates DOV by dragging centre-backs away from key zones.

B. You can identify smart movers

Players who consistently reposition to increase team advantage even in low-event phases.

C. Pressing intelligence becomes measurable

A midfielder whose approach angle shuts down progressive options creates defensive DOV.

D. Tactical automatisms become quantifiable

You can detect patterns such as:

• coordinated rotations

• decoy runs

• wide overloads

• rest-defence morphing

Across matches or players.

Ideal New Methodology

5. Use cases for clubs

Recruitment

Find undervalued players who don’t show up in event data but shape the game subtly.

Academy development

Teach young players why occupation matters, not just execution.

Match preparation

Quantify how opponents deform when pressed or stretched.

Game model validation

Measure whether your structure behaves as intended under real competition.

6. Conclusion

Football is a spatial negotiation — a constant battle to create or deny favourable occupation.Traditional analytics capture the actions that finish this process.DOV captures the process itself.

As datasets grow richer and tactical models more demanding, Dynamic Occupation Value will become a standard layer: not replacing xThreat or EPV, but explaining why those values emerge in the first place.